Rochedale South Community Crime Update

If you are new to the group, you will notice that every few months, Neighbourhood Crime Watchers – Community Intelligence, team reviews verified Queensland Police Service (QPS) crime data alongside local reports from residents NCWs watchers. We share this data to help our community understand what’s really happening. Trends, highs and lows are the focus. Together, these tell a story of patterns, spikes, and slowdowns how our area ebbs and flows over time. By digging deeper into the data, we learn what preventions to put in place.

1. HEADLINE NUMBERS

• Last 2 Years: 932 offences (8 Aug 2023 – 7 Aug 2025) average ≈ 38.8 per month

• Last Year: 443 offences (8 Aug 2024 – 7 Aug 2025) average ≈ 36.9 per month

• Last 6 Months: 235 offences (8 Feb 2025 – 7 Aug 2025) — average ≈ 39.2 per month

Trend Insight:

The overall rate looks steady, but the rhythm tells a different story. Short surges appear roughly every 8–10 weeks, followed by calm periods that can be misleading. Our community is stable on paper, but activity spikes are sharper and closer together than before.

2. OFFENCE MIX

Last 6 Months – Top Counts

Total 235

Last Year – Top Counts

Total 443

Understanding the pattern:

Theft and unlawful entry are steady drivers, but every six months a new category rises. In early 2025, drug and assault offences increased sharply. By mid-year, vehicle crimes and property damage became dominant. This shows that criminal behaviour shifts under pressure, adapting to where community attention and police focus are strongest.

3. Seasonal and Weekly Fluctuations

• Crime peaks in April, dips in July, and often climbs again mid-spring.

• April’s rise corresponded with longer evenings and increased social activity.

• July’s fall links to winter conditions and reduced street movement.

• Tuesdays and Saturdays continue to show the highest incident volume.

• These patterns prove that crime is not random here it has a rhythm tied to season, daylight, and routine.

Interpretation:

These are not isolated dots. They form a corridor of recurring activity that runs from Rochedale Rd through the residential network around Watland St and Barbarella St all the way through to Chatswood Hills. This movement reflects how offenders travel through quiet back streets and connector roads, exploiting areas with limited surveillance or lighting.

5. SEVERITY OVERVIEW

• High Harm: 13.6% (Assault, Robbery, Weapons, Arson, etc.)

• Serious Acquisitive: 28.5% (Unlawful Entry, UUMV, Handling, Fraud)

• Volume/Opportunity: 57.9% (Theft, Trespass, Property Damage, Traffic, Drug)

While serious violence remains rare, the steady rise in low-to-mid-level offences shows persistent community disruption.

It is the smaller, more frequent crimes that shape how safe people feel day to day.

6. COMMUNITY INTELLIGENCE – WHAT RESIDENTS ARE Reporting

• Most suspicious activity occurs during the evening and early morning hours.

• Daylight thefts are slightly increasing, especially bikes, tools, and parcels.

• Reconnaissance behaviour is more refined: vehicles doing short, quiet passes, mismatched plates, and consistent scouting patterns.

• September is looking concerning with the rise in Assaults, Weapons and Break & Enters in the Rochedale area. Hence the launch of Rochedale Neighbourhood Crime Watchers (RNCW)

The NCW Community Response

Community vigilance works. Local intelligence from residents and patrollers has directly influenced police presence on at least 3 high-risk streets this quarter. Awareness and reporting are changing outcomes.

What does it all mean?

It means that Rochedale South’s crime rate has remained relatively stable, but beneath that surface are ongoing fluctuations, short bursts, quiet dips, and cycles of repeated offences.

Understanding these rhythms is what allows us to anticipate, respond, and protect one another. Every resident plays a role in flattening the peaks and lengthening the calm. These figures do not include September’s counts, which will be reviewed and shared once verified.

Thank you everyone for your diligence and communication.

Policelink: 131 444 | Online:

Crime Stoppers: 1800 333 000 |

Report Online at: https://www.police.qld.gov.au/policelink-reporting

Once a police report is made, you can submit Community Intelligence at: myncwcomintelligence@gmail.com

Kind Regards.

The Intelligence Team.

myncwcomintelligence@gmail.com